Although I never read the book, I caught blurbs of it on the Internet, and my understanding is that the logic worked like this:
The George W. Bush years were so awful that the generation which political came of age during the 2000s has had a negative impression of the Republican Party permanently imprinted on their young minds, which will likely last their entire lives, and cost the Republican Party a generation.
Of course 2010 came around, and that prediction went straight out the window.
The lesson from Carville's blunder is that political memories are short, and people will always direct their resentment against whichever party is in government right now, and forget about two years ago.
And yet, even though I should know better, I'm tempted to repeat James Carville's blunder, and declare that the Republican Party has probably permanently lost the generation which is coming of age right now.
I mean think about it. If you're a middle-aged republican, you've already been through thick and thin with this party, and you'll probably weather this storm just fine. But if you're at that tender age where your political opinions and party affiliations are just beginning to form, what do suppose the odds are going to be that you'll choose to self-identify as a Republican when you see this kind of train wreck going on in the party?
And although some people do change political affiliation later in life, the majority of people don't change political opinions or allegiances after they reach a certain age. (If you want proof of that, just look at how many people are staying loyal to the Republican Presidential Nominee, in spite of all available evidence.)
So what do you think? Has the G.O.P. lost this generation, or what?
4 comments:
The GOP remains the party for service people, and given the limited options for kids in the 99% there will be no foreseeable shortage of up-and-coming supporters. That said, I'm beyond making any predictions for either party at this point. Times are too interesting, by half.
Also: Matt Taibbi.
Thank you so much for that Matt Taibbi article. that goes a long way to explaining everything that is happening these days.
It's a pity...The Democratic Party should be getting the votes of the 99%. One of the reasons I switched party affiliations in my youth was because the Democratic party was supposed to be the party of the working people. (I didn't come from a working class family, but I wanted to be on the right side of history). But Matt Taibbi nails it. The Democratic Party has abandoned their working class voters.
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