Namely: I find it hard to believe that Donald Trump is serious about being President.
I know I'm not the first person to say this. In fact, 6 months ago there were all sorts of articles pointing out that Donald Trump (and many other candidates) benefited financially by running for President (it was tons of free publicity that made them into household names, and they could later cash in on this fame by charging money for speaking appearances, or various other projects).
Also 6 months ago, there were lots of articles pointing out what a huge ego Donald Trump has, and how he just lives for this kind of attention.
However, I haven't seen these articles recently. And fair enough, 6 months ago it was a lot easier to believe that Donald Trump would just ride this wave of publicity for a while, and then drop out. He hasn't dropped out, though, and he's reached the point where he's seriously messing with the Republican Party's electoral process. The joke has gone on far too long for many people to still believe it is a joke.
I recently had a hard time convincing a friend that Donald Trump wasn't a serious contender for President. So I'll just write here what I told him:
Imagine that you are really serious about becoming President. You really want it bad. So you the first thing you do is hire all the best political advisers money can buy, right?
Well, who is advising Donald Trump? No sane political adviser is going to tell him to say the kind of things he's been saying. Either he's got the worst political advisers in the world, or he is just blatantly ignoring everything they tell him.
Compare that to how a serious presidential candidate acts. Every single thing they do is carefully scripted.
Is Trump just unaware that this is how the game is played? Did no one bother to tell him? Or does he just blatantly not care?
Is he really that stupid that he thinks behaving like this is the way to win a Presidential election?
....I just can't imagine that he is! He must know what he's doing.
....I just can't imagine that he is! He must know what he's doing.
I don't know what Trump's long term game is. But I'm relatively confident that he doesn't want to be President. So put this one up as my second political prediction this year.
My Prediction
Donald Trump does not actually want to be elected President. Exactly how far he will let this little game go on, I'm not sure. But at some point, if his numbers don't fall on their own accord, he will either drop out of the race, or perform some sort of self-sabotage.
...and now that my prediction is stored on-line, we can check back in a few months to see how I did.
For my first prediction, on Hillary Clinton easily winning this election, see here.
For an extra bonus, for my 2005 review of Donald Trump's book, How To Think Like a Billionaire, see here.
Link of the Day
Noam Chomsky on ISIS
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